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Sputnik Brazil – Plush military personnel, the government of President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) could irritate and alarm the barracks in 2019 when he insists on the transfer of the country's Israeli embbady in Jerusalem. The national arms industry can suffer heavy losses, besides the agri-food industry.
That's what experts said this week in Sputnik Brazil. According to them, the decision – which would already be made – according to the re-elected federal member, Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP), son of the president – must be very well thought out, because to take sides in the Middle East, which does not never been done by the Brazilian governments, will bring
Maurício Santoro, political scientist and professor in the department of international relations of the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), recalled the alert launched by the Arab League, a group of 22 countries in the region, in a press release "The Arab world has a lot of respect for Brazil and we want not only to maintain relations, but also to improve and diversify them." "the intention to transfer the embbady to Jerusalem could be detrimental to them".
"Those who want the recognition of Jerusalem as a capital are not military.This comes from the evangelical bench, it is a religious group, and there are the contradictions of these groups that are part of that. new Brazilian government, the internal coalition that forms the government, "Santoro told Sputnik, Brazil.
"If Brazil really recognizes Jerusalem as its capital, there will certainly be economic reprisals on the part of the Arab League, such as retaliation, and if they tighten up on agricultural exports, especially meat, which is Brazil's best-selling product to Arab countries, or through contracts related to the defense industry.According to data provided by the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and services (MdIC), it appears that the Brazilian industry.
"cutucar ounce with short stick"
The "ammunition, parts and accessories" is to $ 320.8 million in 11 months this year, however, as Sputnik Brazil has already shown in March, the impact on the trade balance is expected to be even larger,
The amount seems small compared to US $ 8.9 billion exported by Brazil to the Arab countries this year – which is 69.2% of the total (6.16 billion USD) – and consists of meat, cereals and minerals – but it is not negligible. In January alone, Saudi Arabia bought Brazilian weapons worth 80 USD, 34 million, almost
Sputnik Brazil, political scientist Augusto Cattoni, researcher at the Instituto Atlântico, recalled that Brazil exports traditionally weapons in Brazil. The Middle East, something that was already more important in the 1970s and 1980s, at a time when the Brazilian military dictatorship was establishing trade relations with nations such as Iraq and Kuwait.
Although he believes that any change of the Brazilian Embbady from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem should think "well in advance" and that, if it were executed, it would be like "banging" of the ounce with a short stick ", Cattoni minimized the possible commercial impacts of the country if the Arabs decided to retaliate against it
" Nobody takes too seriously that Brazil wants to meddle with a conflict in which there is only one observer.Brazil has no national interest according to the Middle East.I mean, so I guess [a transferência da embaixada] is more a matter of relations the Middle East is not a big market for Brazil, it is true that it exports meat to several countries in the Middle East, but it is very limited and, of course, this will undoubtedly pose problems for exporting companies animal protein to the Middle East, "he said.
With seven of the 22 ministers of the military branch, the Bolsonaro administration is seen as an opportunity for the development and growth of the national arms industry. Internally, the status of disarmament is expected to be more flexible. The president of the Association of Aerospace Industries of Brazil (AIAB), Walter Bartels, said: "Sputnik Brazil has had no problem with the Brazilian market," he said. information "on the impact of the transfer of the Embbady in Jerusalem to the market, while no leader of the Brazilian Association of Industry
However, informally , there is an optimistic view, mainly due to the presence of military origin names in key positions in the sector, such as the Office of Institutional Security (Augusto Heleno, General of the Brazilian Army) , defense (Fernando Azevedo e Silva, general of the Brazilian army), in the fields of science and technology (Marcos Pontes, lieutenant colonel of the Brazilian air force ) and Minas and Energia (Bento Costa e Lima,
In addition, the wing composed of military and liberals – commissioned by the superintendent of the economy, Paulo Guedes – seems to be the most coherent of the new government of Bolsonaro, which gives the impression that the proposals proposed by the casern es (including investments and promotion of the arms industry) will be examined.
According to Mauricio Santoro, it is advisable to remain cautious about the scope of this internal alliance between the military and the liberals. The political scientist said that he was "skeptical" about the real liberalism of the names of the barracks that will make up the Bolsonaro government. He however pointed out that there were a number of contradictions to overcome.
"They [militares] do indeed have this only slightly more liberal speech, a little more critical of this developmentalism, but this liberalism never goes so far, for example, to defend a reform of social security that includes the military. themselves, which now account for half of the welfare deficit […] I think have degrees, have differences, and they like to compare themselves to the policy of the first government of the dictatorship, the economic policy of the Government of Castello Branco with Roberto Campos, with Bulhões de Carvalho, but are gradations. "
In the United States, where he wooed the administration of President Donald Trump, Eduardo Bolsonaro pointed out that he was enough to decide when the Brazilian embbady would be taken. in Jerusalem. With regard to possible trade losses with the Arab world, the president-elect's son has unclearly pointed out that Brazil would seek other markets, thus reinforcing the trend towards more bilateral agreements. and not to a block with Mercosur.
For Augusto Cattoni, the strategy announced by the new Brazilian government is correct and the presence of the army poses no problem to the country in this attempt to promote business abroad.
"I think in theory that the commercial direction of the government is valid because I think that Mercosur in the last 30 years has gone nowhere.I think Mercosur with Lula has become very politicized and has chosen to take sides for developed countries, especially the US and Europe, which are betting on Southern trade.I think the idea of concluding bilateral trade agreements with everyone is a good strategy because it really does not work and Mercosur have prevented Brazil from entering into such bilateral agreements with the world and, obviously, its interests are not the same as those of Argentina and much less than those of Paraguay and Uruguay. "
In the case of the Middle East, Brazil has always been an ally not only in agribusiness or arms sales, but also in international and multilateral fora. es that the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. Any Arabic replica, according to Maurício Santoro, will have an impact here.
"I mean, Brazil is very vulnerable to these pressures from the Arab countries," he concluded. the 247 "style =" width: 100%; margin: 10px 0 10px 0; "/>
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