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The beginning of this year was marked by the slightest disagreement among badysts on the growth prospects of the economy since 2007.
If it is maintained, the approximation of projections may contribute to an increase in investment by indicating a less uncertain scenario for entrepreneurs
The gap between the most optimistic and the most pessimistic estimates of the change in GDP (gross domestic product) in 2019 rose from almost 3 points in early December 2018 to 1.7 points in mid-January.
] Currently, the most positive expansion forecasts are 3.5% and the most negative, 1.8%, according to data from the Focus survey of the Central Bank.
It is normal that the dispersion between projections of economic results in the start year falls when the end-of-cycle data are known.
The disclosed indicators reveal more clearly the intensity and direction of the level of activity. Even taking into account this usual trend, the degree of divergence among economists in early February is the lowest of more than a decade. At the same time in 2018, the gap between the most extreme views of badysts was for example 2.9 percentage points.
By February 2016, in the midst of one of the worst recessions in the country, the distance between projections reached 3.9 percentage points. The most pessimistic of the moment forecast a fall in GDP of 4.59%, while the most optimistic predicted a fall of 0.7%.
The current trend towards greater convergence of viewpoints has been fueled by the concomitant decline in optimism and, on the one hand, frustrating data reveal a weaker-than-expected current activity scenario. on the other hand, the reduction of political uncertainty could be more encouraging than the most skeptical
. the scenario of the PT, which significantly reduces the pessimistic picture, but the economy has not yet reacted to anything that reduces optimism ", summarizes Fernando Montero, chief economist at Tullett Prebon.
Market Economists report their updated projections of weekly economic indicators for British Columbia – feared, for the most part, a victory for the PTs It was feared that the party's opposition to reforms such as social security would boil down not to a campaign rhetoric
"Last year's political turmoil suggested the idea of a great deal of uncertainty that has diminished over time," he said. said Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados consultancy
When polls on voter intentions began to highlight Jair Bolsonaro's high-profile elections, the expectations of growth even before the first round, the maximum projection of GDP growth in 2019 was 4.5%.
"The farthest are already waiting for explosive GDP this year," Vale said. The demonstration of the persistent weakness of the industry and the labor market, however, functioned as a bucket of cold water extremely optimistic, which contributed to the decline in higher expectations.
On the other hand, says Zeina Latif, chief economist at XP. Investments, among the most pessimistic, also concerned Bolsonaro's commitment to reform, despite his more liberal rhetoric than that of the PT.
She cites, as an example, the fact that Paulo Guedes, chief advisor to the campaign's president and current Minister of the Economy – did not stress much the importance of security reform during the campaign
"This has changed, since then we have seen a large learning curve [Guedes]"
This would contribute to the latest increase in the GDP forecast floor. According to Zeina, the larger convergence signals to entrepreneurs – which accompany the economic badyzes – is a scenario that is expected to reach about 1.5% of GDP this year, but has recently revised its projection to 2%
.
This may facilitate investment planning, but to move to a more intense flow of expenditures, significant reforms must be approved in practice.
"There is an expectation, but the beginning of the year does not mark a spectacular start to the year 2019. If pension reform occurs, if it occurs, it will not be. that in the second half of the year, the real positive effects on the economy are expected to be more concrete than in 2020. "
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