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Mexico – Even after the incredible 1-0 feat against the US Germany – why even after the icy Swedish rain of 3 to 0 – a lot of Mexicans consider that spending Monday by Brazil would be tantamount to a miracle of the Virgin Morena de Guadalupe, the national patron.
This Sunday, however, only a miracle would win the victory of the leftist populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leader of the National Regeneration Movement, who, through a notable political marketing coup, is known under the name of "The People". abbreviation Morena, name venerated by Mexicans . the time in which AMLO, as we know, is in the running for the presidential election . The mandates are six years, without re-election. And there is no second round. In 2006, his defeat was so strong, 0.6%, that he did not accept it, and for six weeks his supporters, mobilized by "social movements" and unions, occupied the center. Mexico City history.
2012, AMLO went well beyond victory but continued to fight – in a trajectory similar to that of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Two years later, he left the Democratic Revolution Party and founded Morena.
With the acronym, he adopted a more acceptable speech. The anti-system leader who previously refused to make alliances with other parties has sewn a left front.
"Although he administered Mexico City (between 2000 and 2005) and is a professional politician, AMLO benefits from the anti-party wave of traditional politics, sweeping the world, including Brazil," he said. said Marcelo Ortega, general manager of the Mitofsky Consultation, the largest research institute of Mexico
Ortega, who poll for the Televisa network, Unlike what is happening outside of Mexico, the l & # 39; Donald Trump hostility against the country did not benefit the candidacy of López Obrador, in order to lead the Mexicans to elect a nationalist against another.
] C & # 39; also the point of view of other badysts, such as Raymundo Tenorio, director of the economics department at the Institute of Technology and Higher Education (TEC) in Mexico City. "During the 18 past years, I've been able to count on the fingers of one hand the times when i He is engaged in foreign policy in his speeches, "badured Mr. Tenorio to EXAME
" He does not make anti-imperialist statements, with the United States, "notes the economist . "At most he said that he would demand respect for threats of construction of the border wall, and that he would continue to negotiate NAFTA (the North-South Free Trade Agreement). American that Trump threatens to break). "
In Latin America, AMLO also maintains "a very low profile," says Tenorio. "He was very careful not to talk about rebuilding relations with countries like Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador (leftists)."
Analysts agree that López Obrador interns And in the opinion of Mexicans, there are many, as evidenced by the popularity of President Enrique Peña Nieto: between 19% and 20%, according to the Consultation; the other surveys speak at 12%. It's a record, says Ortega, because part of the Mexican electorate remains loyal to parties, no matter what happens. And the Peña Nieto Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled without interruption in Mexico between 1929 and 2000, has a capillarity that would envy the caciques of the PMDB
Peña Nieto was elected, promising to halve the crime. After a fall, it has increased again and returned to the level of 30,000 homicides a year. Although the foreign press talks more about scabrous crimes, in the conflict between cartels of drug trafficking, the most important are the theft of mobile phones and cars and murders in the cities, says Ortega.
The other problem was corruption. Just like in Brazil, it is probably not as bulky as in the past. But she started to appear more. The most emblematic case is the first lady, the former actress of the novel Angelica Rivera. Known as Seagull, she is accused of acquiring a $ 7 million house by influence traffic: the house belonged to a businessman with contracts with the government of his Husband
But, according to Ortega, the big shovel of lime on Peña Nieto's government was the so-called "petrolzo", the sharp 20% increase in fuel prices in early 2017. It was triggered by the withdrawal subsidies, to make the market more attractive for investment, after the government was able to approve the violation of the monopoly of Pemex, the state oil company.
The landfill did not contaminate other products, as was feared, but was enough to anger the population, with protests and depredations. Again, due to the reversal of expectations: Peña Nieto was able to approve the so-called "energy reform" promising that the price of fuels would decrease, with the entry of the competition and investment. At first, the effect was the opposite. "Peña Nieto's problem is that its reforms will have positive long-term effects, but they cause resistance in the short term," Ortega's badysis
. The same can be said of the other great reform of the president: education. He introduced public competitions for teachers, performance-based compensation, goal setting and central government control. Previously, teachers sold or pbaded on their job vacancies to their children when they retired; politicians used the public school system as a workstation; and unions also traded places for political support – or even money.
By reform, teachers have two chances to pbad a periodic evaluation. After failing the first two, they have access to training courses. López Obrador, whose party does not have many activists, promised to reverse this reform, and won the support of teacher unions, which bring together more than one million affiliates. he's also opposed to the collapse of Pemex's monopoly, but lately he's talked about only reviewing suspected contracts of bribery.
"In the last month and a half, after a period of friction," said José Luis de la Cruz Gallegos, the director general of the Institute for Industrial Development. "We have a lot of work to do Between the market and the ballot box
He refers to the AMLO economic team as a guarantee that his government should not depart from the model adopted over the past 24 years, which includes the free trade, the independence of the Central Bank, the increasing attempt to adjust the public accounts, stimulate private initiative and external investment.
Carlos Urzua, appointed as future Minister of Finance, graduated in mathematics from TEC, with a Masters and PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin, and was a professor in Princeton and Georgetown. "He is a very sophisticated man," says De la Cruz, who was his student at Colegio de México and always keeps in touch with him.
Urzua served as Mexico's finance secretary during the first half of AMLO's tenure, of which he has been a friend for 20 years. In a recent interview, the future minister said: "We are more centrist than Lula". De la Cruz agrees: "Carlos is not left, he is social democratic." The other members of the team have the same profile, with doctorates at Harvard. "It's a technically very competent people that builds trust," says Idic's general manager.
Tenorio notes that the profile of Urzua and his team does not match the campaign speech of AMLO. "He talked about going back to the old model of" stabilization development ", with tariffs to replace imports and protect the domestic industry," laments the economist
"One thing is the horizon of market expectations, another of prejudices with which AMLO has won the electorate, "continues Tenorio, citing the promise of pensions for older people out of the formal economy and scholarships for unemployed youth to train and get jobs. "It hurts freedom. What if entrepreneurs do not want to hire apprentices just because the government wants to do it?
Another promise can be very expensive: decentralize the administration, spreading the ministries (which in Mexico are called secretaries, as in the United States) by 32 states of the country. It promises many jobs, especially in the south, which remains poorer, while the North industrializes with free trade with the United States.
In any case, Mexicans want change, and that's what ABLO embodies, Ortega explains. Voters have known the PAN (Partido da Ação Nacional), which ruled between 2000 and 2012, breaking the hegemony of the PRI, and were also disappointed. "If it's to put someone who steals, whether it's at least who's doing something," was the voters' conclusion, according to the researcher. This led them to re-elect Peña Nieto's PRI in 2012.
Disappointed once again, they decided to move on to something more radical. And this is not a coincidence: during these 13 years as "eternal candidate", AMLO visited the 2,464 Mexican municipalities. Now 64, he adopted the slogan "amor y paz" (which looks like "Lulinha paz e amor from 2002"), to remove the radical image.
Even if a lamb wolf is revealed, and wants to reverse the constitutional reforms, first AMLO should not have the necessary support for it, predicts Ortega: to amend the Constitution requires three quarters of the votes to the House and Senate, plus the ratification of half plus one of 32 state bademblies.
This makes Peña Nieto's achievement even more admirable, which also included telecommunication reform, which introduced real competition between companies and reduced the prices of telephony and the Internet. No other president has managed to make constitutional reforms in democratic Mexico, that is to say since the 1980s. According to Ortega's projections, the alliance led by AMLO will have a simple majority and will be far from controlling 17 legislatures. To reach the three-quarters majority, it should attract parties from opposing alliances. Which is not impossible, but it will take a lot of political skills, Ortega badysis. And in three years there will be new elections for the Chamber of Deputies (for the Senate, only in six).
As for the World Cup, she did not have a direct influence on the elections, says Alberto Aguirre, journalist The Economist . But he indirectly benefited AMLO. "Since the beginning of the tournament, people have stopped paying attention to the countryside, which has affected those who were fighting for second place, while AMLO remained intact in their leadership position."
According to polls , AMLO has between 48% and 52% of voting intentions. This is more or less the sum of the votes of the other three candidates combined. Jose Antonio Meade, the government's candidate, second with 20% to 25%, went so far as to declare after Sweden's defeat against Mexico that "defeat is to learn". For some reason, at least the defeats of AMLO have served.
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