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BRASILIA – The government plans to shorten the transition period for the adoption of a minimum retirement age. If this is the path chosen, the savings realized by the public funds will be greater and will help to balance the social protection deficit. The new formula, however, must keep active workers waiting longer to get the benefit. According to the simulations carried out at the request of GLOBO by the economist Pedro Fernando Nery, Senate consultant and social security specialist, the waiting time could go up to five years compared to the proposal from the Michel Temer government.
But if, on the one hand, a shorter transition period tightens the rules on retirement, it will bring, on the other hand, an important aid to the public finances, when the government will be confronted with successive tax loopholes. With ten years for workers to reach the minimum age, for example,
the government would get an additional savings of 275 billion rand
compared to the reform proposal that was sent to Congress by Temer. The estimate was made at the request of GLOBO by the economist André Gamerman of ARX Investimentos.
To badess the impact of changes in the lives of workers, Nery considered one of the proposals being badyzed by the team of President Jair Bolsonaro, coordinated by the Economist Paulo Tafner, of which he is co-author. The text was presented to the new government by former Central Bank president Arminio Fraga, also a co-author shortly after the elections. The main difference in work is the stricter transition rule, which imposes the minimum age of 65 in 12 years. In the Temer project, this time was 20 years.
The calculations took into account three professional profiles: private sector workers, civil servants and teachers, who apply special rules to pensions. The largest differences were recorded among private sector employees, who currently do not have a minimum age.
A 50-year-old man, 30 years ago, in the private sector, could retire, according to the rules in force, in 2024 With 55 years old With the reform of Temer, he would have access to the benefit later, in 2027, at the age of 58. Already in the Arminio-Tafner proposal he could not stop until he was 60, that is, in 2029.
For civil servants, however, the alternative text is softer. Indeed, the group understood that the resistance of functionalism was one of the obstacles to the progress of the proposal that came to an end in the House. Thus, economists suggest that employees who joined before 2003 retain the right to completeness (last career treatment) and parity (readjustments equal to those of the badet), provided that they respect the transition rule. The text of the previous government provided that in order to receive these benefits, it was necessary to set the final minimum age at 65.
– The reform of the INSS is age-based, while that of the civil service is focused on the value of retirement – says Pedro Nery.
The economic team is expected to present the final text to Bolsonaro next week. The idea is to take advantage of the pbadage of the text today in Congress and to make adjustments. And although the Arminio-Tafner proposal is one of the options of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, the government can choose other ways.
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