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Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO (the acronym for his full name), is at the best time of a politician. He is the elected president of Mexico, enjoys a very cool victory and still does not pay the governance fees. The honeymoon up here was perfect. Every day, a new compliment from a former opponent. If he continues like this, he can live a future like the one devised by Chavela Vargas: "Every night is a wedding night."
In his case, there is also another advantage, namely that the victory was resounding. "The fact that 70% of the electorate voted, and that 53% of these people voted for AMLO, is quite shocking," says Mexican Antonio Ibarra, in a cafe in Buenos Aires. Ibarra is professor of economic history in his country and came to Argentina in search of archives for an investigation on the Spanish consulates of the colony.
If there is a Mexican in Argentina, there must be Argentines in Mexico. In perfect symmetry, the Argentine historian Pablo Yankelevich, professor at the Historical Studies Center of Mexico City College, tells me during a telephone conversation another crucial factor: "For the first time, the elections were held together, with its local congresses, prefectures and municipal councils. And the voters voted for everything, for AMLO and for the whole list. So, from north to south of the country, which was anti-AMLO was painted AMLO from head to toe. "
For Ibarra and Yankelevich, AMLO interpreted the crisis process of the traditional parties well, and took a big step towards its recent victory by founding the National Regeneration Movement, the triumphant Morena, of the same name as the brown virgin. of Guadalupe, which gathers millions of devotees every day on December 12. AMLO turned the Morena into a political party to run for president, but did not want to take away the character of the movement. "Morena's success is to have built a territorial base based on local demands, demands and a web of traditional loyalties, taking advantage of Obrador's great political capital, which is the confidence that many sectors have in him ", says Ibarra 19659005] The July 1 election was proof of the party's crisis.The PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional), which ruled until 2000 uninterruptedly for 70 years, returned to power in 2012. with Enrique Peña Nieto until it "collapses internally, loses its territoriality and isolates its social base, devoting itself to reproduction a sophisticated technocracy, but incapable politically, it is to say, cut his veins, "according to Ibarra. With regard to the NAP (National Action Party), former presidents Vicente Fox (2000-2006) and Felipe Calderón (2006-2012), with a Christian-Democratic tendency, "have lost their heritage. social and conservative voters, religious and anti-PRI ". The bipartisan PRI-PAN, which took shape in 1988, with neoliberal President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, finally began to collapse. "The triumph has been so devastating that it is as if Peronism was losing in regions historically theirs in Argentina, as in La Matanza," Yankelevich badysis.
. And the amazing thing is that it was like that. Its symbol "Matanza", though smaller – since it has only 100,000, and no more than a million, as the reference Argentina – called Atlacomulco. It is a municipality of the State of Mexico. Cradle of PRI leaders, only once the region managed to make the most voted in its electoral area was elected president – what happened to Peña Nieto. The PRD (Democratic Revolutionary Party), founded in 1989 as a left-wing dissident of the PRI, was elected to the PRI Presidency.
was already losing its leading leaders, among whom AMLO and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, the son of the nationalist president Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-1940), and showed even more without an identity when he signed the Pact for Mexico in 2012 with the PRI For Obrador, there was no doubt: "it is a pact against Mexico, preparing a major badault to reform the Constitution and deliver benefits "and the quote from millionaire John D. Rockefeller:" The best deal in the world is oil, and the second best deal is poorly managed oil. " For AMLO, the Pact for Mexico was not "a mental colonization, but the alienation of the country's natural resources, motivated by greed."
The current president-elect also supported the 39, that corruption in the operating expenses of the oil industry generates an excess supply of 60%, which increases the cost of production from four to ten dollars per barrel. "When Mexico has stopped refining gasoline, the government has made the decision to transfer to citizens the cost of corruption within the state-owned oil company Pemex" "According to Ibarra," López Obrador promises to recover growth , to distribute and fight corruption by example, eliminating overbilling that affects the country's population, "says Ibarra, who intertwines the country's corruption and energy policy problems.
biased auctions, and the opening of competition for medium-sized suppliers that were previously excluded. "Meanwhile," he has already announced symbolic gestures regarding public service in general, such as the reduction of wages and the expenses of the employees and the president himself ". Yankelevich completes the information that AMLO is badured that he does not need the Presidential Guard of the Army or any other residence beyond his home. In his victory speech, he said: "The scale must be swept from the top down."
"The fierce corruption of northern rulers in states like Chihuahua ended up tilting the vote in favor of Obrador, "interprets Yankelevich. "He added such elements as outrage over corruption, lack of solutions to the problem of violence, the intense activity of drug trafficking – much more intense in the north of the country by the way to the United States – and the increase of fuels.Corruption is a significant evil, "but" kill "is huge," says Yankelevich if Mexican, speaking of a country where the figures murdered in recent years are reaching hundreds of thousands. "And poverty is also: 45 million plus one Argentina, in a country of 130 million inhabitants." Out of these 45 million, "at least 15 live in the world." extreme poverty ", reports Ibarra
Chancellor Ebrard
And Donald Trump? The two historians agree on the political capital of AMLO as an even greater differential compared to "the unworthy attitude" of Peña Nieto, who accepted all possible humiliations of his US gue, and the relationship with the United States could have a common result of realism. Obrador wants to be the president of a country where Mexicans do not emigrate. Trump wants to make the United States a country with fewer immigrants. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other agreements between the two countries may or may not be revised, but nothing in the short term will change the knot of two related economies in productive and financial terms – Yankelevich attaches great importance to the announcement that the former mayor of Mexico City (2006-2012) Marcelo Ebrard will be the next Chancellor. "He is a skilled politician, who worked in the AMLO office when he was mayor of the same capital (USA) and his good training allows him to read and act intelligently on relations with the states. United States, with the rest "
" The neoliberals tried to build on Obrador the legend of a dictatorial, statist, expropriating figure Some bosses even ran internal campaigns in their companies to ask employees to vote against this demon called AMLO, in some cases under the threat of resignation, "says Yankelevich." But the overwhelming triumph has brought some of these bosses to speak well of the president-elect today, and the problem is that it's not the same. they took the time to understand the nuances and tactics of a popular leader who did not advocate breaking relations with the United States. "Ibarra and Yankelevich both attach great importance to Moreno's strategy, and at AM LO himself, to present himself as the embodiment of the fourth great political transformation of Mexican history. In the story of Lopez Obrador, the first transformation was the War of Independence (1810-1821). The second was the period of Benito Juarez and its reform (1855-1863), and the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920) was the third.
"AMLO wants to be part of a lineage of patriotic presidents and liberal social tradition," says Ibarra, and adds, "The fundamental identification lies in austerity, in the legality of Juarez and in the vocation of Francisco Madero.
"The power of the official Mexican historiographic discourse is so great that eight years, not even twelve years old The PAN in power could change it," recalls Yankelevich. "Even Calderón had to celebrate the centenary of the Mexican Revolution in 2010, even though it was a party that was against it." And the Obrador rescue from Madero's legacy is not accidental, since it is the leader who fought Porfirio Diaz, who was a victim of fraud, arrested, and who had already gone out of prison against Porfirio, got elections and won. "
" Respect for right of others is peace "is a phrase that Lopez Obrador frequently repeats, and belongs to Juárez. In the campaign, AMLO used it to talk about the relationships he's planning to have with Trump, and also regarding Venezuela. "If we do not meddle with anyone's problems, we do not want them to interfere in ours," would be the diplomatic translation. This means that Nicolás Maduro can count on Mexico's departure from the most hostile group in the region against his government.
The presence of Ebrard also has an internal significance. To conquer, the Morena allied themselves with two other political forces and they conformed the coalition Juntos Faremos History. They are the PT (Labor Party) and the social meeting group, which has a great deal of weight within the evangelical community. Although it is said to be respectful of Mexican secularism, the Social Meeting opposes egalitarian marriage and abortion, two advances already in force in the Mexican capital governed by Cuauhtémoc, AMLO and Ebrard, and which will now be headed by elected mayor Claudia Sheinbaum
The change in the political system could include two other elements.
One of them is that for the first time there may be a reelection for deputies (who have one of three years) and senators (with a period of six). "A lawmaker is allowed to change party in the first half of his term (ie, one and a half years for deputies and before three years for senators," says Yankelevich. there is currently, there could be a mbadive migration to Morena, which would further increase the majority that has already won. "
The second element comes from an AMLO promise underlined by Ibarra." He said that the third year, when half of his term arrives, will call a referendum to be dismissed, and in the case of the regional offices he will do so for a year and a half of his term, thus obliging him to dynamic management and seeking the construction of a new (19659030) window.fbAsyncInit = function (), which is an example of the political and economic situation in the region, {
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