What Bolsonaro Expects from Trump's United States Relationship



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Exalted by President Jair Bolsonaro, by his allies and by Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo, the United States won for the first time their own department in the Itamaraty structure. For the department, the measure finds support in its affinities with the US government and in the positive agenda that it intends to build with the world's largest economy. . But critics of the current administration are worried about what they see as an alignment with Trump in a domestic environment unfavorable to the US president. For them, Mercosur remains the main challenge of the Brazilian commercial program.

The new structure of Itamaraty was defined by Decree 9,683 issued on January 9th. South America, which had two departments, accounts for more than one. The former departments of Mercosur and regional integration, which occupied the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), were merged. Canada left the ministry it shared with the United States and expanded to the area of ​​relations with Mexico, South America and the Caribbean. In addition to the United States, the only country to win a department is China.

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Chancellor Ernesto Araújo is in the United States where he met on Tuesday with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton. This visit is part of the preparations for Bolsonaro's trip to the United States scheduled for March. The minister also discussed ways to get out of the crisis in Venezuela (read below) and still has an agenda with American think tanks, authorities and investors as part of efforts to bring the United States closer to the United States. United States.

trade, investment and tourism visa

According to a senior diplomat heard privately in the report, the decision to create a department for the United States is explained by the richness of existing relationships and the potential of the countries the new leadership identifies. "The moment is propitious for a qualitative leap in relations between Brazil and the United States," he told Gazeta do Povo. "The idea is to use these affinities as a lever for a relationship that goes far beyond the government, serving the interests of society, the private sector and academia," he said. .

Management's priority will be to overcome barriers to increased trade, business opportunities, regulatory convergence, investment, productive integration and technology exchange. One of the first steps will be to resume negotiations on Brazil's accession to the Global Entry Program which facilitates the entry of frequent travelers into the United States. The measure is considered beneficial for business leaders. Argentina and Colombia are already part of the program. The ministry's priority is also to exempt US citizens from entering the country, but bureaucratic hurdles must be overcome.

SEE MORE: In addition to the Americans, the government wants the end of the visa for tourists from 3 other countries

Another, more comprehensive, priority is the signing with the United States of the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) of Authorized Economic Operators (AEOs).

The Alcântara Foundation and the bureaucratization of the circulation of products are priorities. MRAs are bilateral agreements between the customs authorities of countries with programs that are compatible with the OAS, that is, they meet the technical and safety criteria recognized by the partners.

The agreements facilitate the entry of goods from licensed companies in countries and reduce transaction costs. Brazil has agreements with Uruguay and Peru and four others are in negotiation: with China, the United States, Argentina and Bolivia. The United States already has 11 MRAs completed and six MRAs under negotiation.

This interest is explained by the fact that Brazil is the second most important destination for Brazilian exports and accounts for 75% of Brazil's industrial product purchases. Negotiations for the agreement have progressed under the government of former President Michel Temer (MDB), but Itamaraty believes that the United States has slowed down the slowdown last year because of political uncertainties in Brazil.

Another area matured in the evaluation of the department, is the Agreement on Technological Guarantees (AST), which protects technologies and patents of signatory countries against copying or non-use. authorized. Agreement is needed so that the Alcântara base in Maranhão can become a competitive center for launching rockets from other countries and private initiative. As the United States is very active in the space technology market, AST is needed to enable these launches. Itamaraty believes that the agreement can be concluded in six months.

SEE ALSO: Brazil must "rent" a space base in the United States. the agreement is in the final stages

Cooperation between Brazil and the United States is based on more than 30 bilateral strategic mechanisms. Itamaraty intends to reactivate some of these mechanisms as a matter of priority in order to make the economic agenda achievable. Among the first to attract attention is the Senior Executive Forum, which is made up of 24 CEOs from both countries, and the Strategic Energy Dialogue, focused on the oil and biofuels market and the United States. installation of small and medium sized US companies in the sector. Brazilian offer.

Priority will also be given to political-military strategic dialogue, with greater involvement of governments in the direction of private defense and security companies, and the Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement (Atec). of a trade and investment agreement. According to the latest data available from the Central Bank, the United States is the country with the largest share of investment stocks in Brazil.

Diplomats believe that the new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada could facilitate negotiations on issues hampering negotiations with Brazil. An example is the gradual abandonment of the clause allowing States to raise investors before international dispute settlement bodies, which Brazil has not accepted. For a diplomat critical of the current government, a trade deal with the United States that would reverse tariffs should not go away until Mercosur countries are better coordinated in the negotiations.

Itamaraty is also planning to create an umbrella. would be coordinated by the Brazilian Chancellor and Secretary of State to oversee all initiatives, agreements and projects considered as priorities and deserving of Bolsonaro's knowledge. The idea is to improve the coordination and effectiveness of projects deemed strategic by the ministry.

The first result of the partnership is the pressure on Maduro

The structural transformation of Itamaraty is accompanied by an increased exchange of political information between Brazil and the United States. United. contributed to the creation of the necessary conditions for the resolution of the Venezuelan crisis. The visit to Brazil of the White House security advisor, John Bolton, at the end of last year and the arrival of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to President Jair Bolsonaro contributed to the conclusion of an agreement that resulted in recognition of the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, Juan Guaidó, acting president of the country, on 23 January.

In early January, the Lima group, an badociation of 13 Latin American and Canadian countries, had already decided, by suggestion of Brazil, not to recognize the legitimacy of the last election of Nicolás Maduro in 2018. Monday (4) in Canada, at a new meeting of the group, member countries asked the Venezuelan army also recognizes Guaidó as president of the country. At the end of the meeting, 19 European countries recognized Mr Guaidó as Acting President.

Three points, however, remain unclear. One of them is the eventual creation of a corridor for the arrival of humanitarian aid to Venezuela, an intention enshrined in the Lima Group Declaration. Canada has announced a $ 40 million loan, worth about 148 million pesetas, for humanitarian aid to the country. Guaidó said that he had a plan of badistance for Colombia.

NOTICE: The risk of civil conflict in Venezuela is real and may have consequences for Brazil.

Another point is that the European countries are defending a mediation effort as a way out of the crisis, which is rejected by Brazil and the United States. On more than one occasion, Chancellor Ernesto Araújo opposed the mediation strategy, which was only one way for the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro to save time and not not see the possibility of mediation when one of the parties is totally illegitimate.

This position is reflected in one of the points of the last statement of the Lima group, according to which "the dialogue initiatives proposed by various international actors have been manipulated by the Maduro regime, which has transformed them into defensive maneuvers to perpetuate itself in power, and therefore, consider that any political or diplomatic initiative likely to occur should aim to support the map of the constitutional path presented by the National Assembly and the President in charge, Juan Guaidó. "

A solution to the crisis in Venezuela would give relief for Ernesto Araújo

A peaceful end to the crisis in the neighboring country will be considered an important victory for Araújo. The Chancellor's critics often point out that his agenda is rhetorical and ideological and that his praise of President Donald Trump was excessive. This also worries critics that the Democrats have regained control of the House in the country, thus damaging Trump's situation, which could be the target of impeachment.

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A victory for Araújo would also be a respite in military circles. The vice-president, General Hamilton Mourão, came to interview in an interview with the magazine whether the minister had a foreign policy directive for Brazil. The philosopher Olavo de Carvalho, who first broadcast the name of Araújo for Itamaraty on social networks, intensified his criticism of the vice president, accusing him of conspiracy. against President Bolsonaro.

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