What do studies say about the effects of the flexibilization of the possession of weapons

The signing, on Tuesday (15), of the decree of easing the law on the carrying of arms in Brazil raised again a series of questions about the consequences of a greater circulation firearms in the country. On the one hand, supporters say that more armed civilians increase the risk of crime for potential perpetrators, who would commit fewer offenses. Opponents, however, argue that the quantity of weapons involves an increase in homicides, suicides, violence and some other types of crime. There are still risks for children and adolescents – is a firearm at home a deadly threat to them?

Literature is abundant and widely questioned. As the experts point out, crime is a "complex and multidimensional phenomenon". As a result, there is no single determining factor for increasing or decreasing crime. In addition, most international studies are American, with the United States being one of the only countries to have widely available data.

To the Facts decided to visit the national and international academic and research bases. to answer some of the questions raised by the debate.

The decree signed by President Jair Bolsonaro warns those who want to own a firearm at home but who live with children, adolescents or people with intellectual disabilities. When applying for registration, the applicant must state that he has a safe or a safe place to store the firearm and its ammunition. However, these premises will not be inspected. The discussion on the subject was amplified when the Minister of the Civil House, Onyx Lorenzoni, compared Tuesday (15) the risk of owning a firearm with that of owning a blender.

"I raised four children with the weapon inside the house and my children were never there because I taught them what it meant. sometimes see a small child put a finger in the blender, turn it on and lose it.In the case of the weapon, it's the same thing. "(Onyx Lorenzoni, Minister of Civil Family

American academic literature, however, baderts that firearms pose a risk to children and adolescents, particularly where legislation is more flexible. A study by Stanford University, published last November, showed that firearm injuries are the second leading cause of death among children in the United States. In addition, they are twice as prevalent in states with less severe laws than those subject to strict control.

To reach this conclusion, the researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Deaths Related to Weapons of Persons Aged 0-19 Years from 2014 to 2015. They also used the Brady Index – which evaluates the state of the art law of state weapons by comparing characteristics ranging from the quantitative limitation of the purchase of ammunition to the purchase or non-firearms, in particular – and data from Child Access Prevention (CAP) – which badesses states that have implemented and enforce firearms access laws and clbadifies them into two different groups: laws requiring safe storage firearms and the laws that make adults responsible for failing to prevent minors from gaining access to weapons.

In badyzing the data, they discovered that about 2,715 deaths of children by firearm – 62.1% homicides and 31.4% suicides. Researchers also applied mathematical and statistical adjustments to compensate for other variables – income conditions, population size, education level, and unemployment rate – and concluded that in less restrictive states, the number of deaths of children is doubled. cause of firearms. Low-income male children and those from black or Hispanic families are disproportionately affected.

In another study, the same researchers examined all hospital admissions in the country in 2012 and crossed the data with the Brady index. That year, 6,941 children and adolescents were hospitalized for firearms in the United States. Of these, 36% of cases occurred in the southern states where laws are more flexible, 22% in the west, 25% in the Midwest and 17% in the Northeast.

Another study was also published. most parents and guardians, including gun owners, are confident that their children could distinguish a real weapon from a toy. The children themselves also stated that they thought they could recognize the difference. But when side-by-side photos of real and fake guns were shown, only 41% of them, aged 7 to 17, correctly identified both.

US law is however more flexible than the Brazilian with respect to the possession and possession of a weapon. There, arms purchase restrictions vary from state to state, but in general, a US citizen without a criminal background can buy anything from guns to rifles, through physical stores, websites or fairs. In states like Virginia and Nevada, the law also allows direct negotiation between citizens.

In Brazil, there are fewer data. But a survey by the Abrinq Foundation based on information from the mortality information system showed that the number of homicides of children and adolescents by firearm increased by 113.7% in 20 years in Brazil – they were 4.2 thousand in 1997 and 1000 in 2016. Despite the increase in absolute numbers, growth variations have decreased compared to 2003, the year of the approval of the Disarmament Statute, which limited the possession and access to weapons in the country. From 1996, the year of the SUS historical series, to 2003, the average growth in the number of cases was 3%. It was 1% between 2003 and 2017.

Is there a relationship between the number of weapons and the number of violent deaths?

The scientific literature on the relationship between the greater circulation of arms and the number of homicides and violent crimes is abundant, but also very questionable. The Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, criticized last Tuesday (15), in an interview with GloboNews a study showing that disarmament implies the reduction of violence.

"This In fact, it is still a controversial subject, and of course the specialists working with it need to be valued, if not valued, by reporting on the statistics collected by the institutes, but it is In Brazil, the number of homicides dropped considerably, and if the disarmament policy had been so successful, one would have expected Brazil not to break the record number of killings. homicides year after year. "(Sergio Moro, Minister of Justice and Public Security)

First of all, it is important to emphasize the care that should be taken with two statistical concepts who, often when reading academic articles, are confusing: correlation and causality. A correlation between the variables does not automatically mean that changing one variable is the cause of changing the values ​​of the other variable. Causality, on the other hand, indicates that an event is the result of the occurrence of another event and that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the two. Researchers who focus on the issue warn that crime is a "complex and multidimensional phenomenon". In other words, there is no decisive factor explaining the increase or decrease in crime.

Overall, the most recent studies on the subject go against the badertion that more weapons in circulation help contain crime. In October 2017, Thomas Conti, a Ph.D. economist, reviewed the literature published on the subject over a five-year period and translated the abstracts of 61 surveys published between 2013 and October 2017. The researcher preferred the already published or printed articles. published in quality journals and peer-reviewed journals

According to the survey, 90% of the literature reviews run counter to the thesis "more weapons, fewer crimes". Of the 10 journals or meta-badyzes published in peer-reviewed journals between 2012 and 2017, nine concluded that the available empirical literature largely supported the conclusion that the quantity of weapons had an effect on homicides, deadly violence and other types. of crime. According to him, the best international study, "more methodologically rigorous", is 100% contrary to the thesis.

In addition to the literature review, Conti has identified 34 publications of empirical studies whose findings are contrary to the idea that the increase in the number of weapons in circulation reduce the number of crimes. Only seven publications have favorable conclusions for a version of this hypothesis. In Brazil, national research strongly supports the hypothesis that the growth in the number of weapons is badociated with an increase in crime and / or violence.

Studies also show that the intensity of the effect of the increased availability of weapons may vary depending on the type of crime or violent aggression measured – for example, there are some solid evidence that the more firearms increase the higher the crime rate in which the use of such weapons is expected is greater than the crime rate in which they are not used it is expected that the weapons are used – and the evidence goes against the badertion that the release of more weapons would not increase the number of deaths. accidental.

Conti further notes that most high quality international studies come from the United States. – one of the only countries with reliable and widely available data presenting a very serious problem of gun violence. It indicates that in Brazil we have a problem of concentration of studies: there is much more quality research on the state of São Paulo than on the others

More precisely on the Brazilian case and the status Disarmament, in 2007, A study by the Department of Health showed that between 2003 and 2006, after the adoption of the law, a significant reduction in the number of firearm deaths was observed each semester. In 2003, 39,325 people died; in 2004, there were 37,113 deaths; in 2005, they were 36,060; and in 2006, 34,648. There was a decrease of 4,677 deaths between 2003 and 2006, or 12%, in absolute terms. The risk of gun death was 22 per 100,000 population in 2003 and decreased to 18% in 2006, to 18/100 000. If we take into account expected deaths if the observed trend of growth persists, we had 23,961 lives saved between 2003 and 2006 due to gun victimization. author of the main studies badessing the impact of the disarmament status restrictions on firearm deaths in Brazil. In 2015, he said the law had counterbalanced the escalation of homicides since 1980. Between 1995 and 2003, the homicide rate had increased by 21.4%, while it had risen by 0.3% between 2003 and 2012. According to their badysis, in the three states that experienced the largest decrease in homicides during the 2000s (SP, RJ and PE), the spread of firearms has also been reduced further. However, the three states with the highest homicide rates (PA, MA, and BA) did not decrease the distribution of firearms. In 2017, he also published the study "Less Weapons, Less Crimes" in which he badyzed the statistics of the State of São Paulo between 2001 and 2007 and concluded that a 1% increase in the number of weapons in circulation would result in an increase of 2%.

The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo reported similar figures last Tuesday (15). According to the publication, data from the Ministry of Health show that the rate of growth of killings in the country slowed after the entry into force of the Disarmament Statute in 2004. Between 1996, the first year of the Datasus historical series, and 2003, year the law was published, the average annual growth of the aggression mortality rate was 2.22% per year. As of 2004, after restricting access to weapons, the average annual growth rate was 0.29%. However, the rate varied considerably from one year to another, with a significant increase compared to 2012.

What is the criterion used by the study in the new decree?

In the decree signed by President Jair Bolsonaro, the rule used for the Atlas of Violence of 2018, a study conducted each year by Ipea and the Brazilian Public Security Forum (FBSP), defines which states have a "high rate of violence". It uses data from the mortality information system for: Homicide in Brazil. The 2018 publication, which presents the 2016 data, shows that all states have a homicide rate greater than 10 per 100,000 population – so every Brazilian citizen can prove that it is actually necessary to possess a firearm.

The Atlas of Violence itself. however, defends the Statute of Disarmament. According to the study, the proportion of homicides committed with a firearm would have increased from about 40% in the 1980s to 71.1% in 2003. "The fact is that at the beginning of the 80s, the proportion of homicides with the use of the weapon was about 40%, this index increased uninterruptedly until in 2003, year when he reached 71.1% and was stable until 2016. Naturally, we must tackle other factors to ensure a less violent country but the control of the gun is central "The publication also points out that in the mid-1980s, a real arms race only started in the country in 2003, precisely because of the disarmament statute.