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On December 6, 1998, Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías won the presidential elections in Venezuela for the first time and inaugurated a new page in the history of the country. At the time, Venezuela was punished for corruption, poverty and inequality. The new president came to power with the promise of a reconstituted republic, which would regenerate politics and make social justice so desired.
But, 20 years later, many of the problems of that era have worsened. The neighboring country is experiencing the biggest recession in its history. According to the National Assembly, the Venezuelan parliament, currently controlled by the opposition, announced 12 consecutive quarters of economic recession in July.
Inflation in the country is around 1 000 000% per year. Hunger killed an average of 11 kilograms for Venezuelans last year. Violence empties the streets of big cities at dusk.
The historian Agustín Blanco Muñoz, author of several books on the recent history of Venezuela and the figure of Chavez, explains the context of this victory of Chavez: "The system of fixed points, which has end of the dictatorship of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958, was based on two parties, Acción Democrática (AD) and the Independent Committee of Political Political Organization (COPEI), which alternated to power without being able to solve problems, and each president who took office blamed first for his legacy.
Then, the Venezuelans have decided to trust Chavez, a young soldier who became famous as a leader.
of a coup attempt in 1992 against Carlos Andres Perez.
His televised message to the country shortly after the failure of the rebellion, when he announced that his Bolivarian movement had not achieved its goals "for the time being", was, as the l wrote Gabriel García Márquez, "the beginning of his campaign" election. "
After being pardoned in 1994 by President Rafael Caldera, Chavez, dressed in a tie and no longer wearing the military uniform, participated in the ballot six years later and was eliminated by washing.
"The situation in 1998 was a real disaster and it managed to present itself as a savior in the middle of this disaster, because the Venezuelans no longer believed in traditional political parties," said Mr. Blanco.
Despite the statements made against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during his previous term (1974-1979) and during the presidential campaign of 1989, President Carlos Andres Perez made the adjustments agreed with the agency in exchange for a credit so that Venezuela can cope with its huge external debt and improve its economy, affected by the drop in oil prices on the international markets.
At the time, as today, Venezuela depended on its exports of crude oil, without refining (thus without added value).
In the 1970s, especially in the first government of Perez, Venezuela had benefited from an oil boom that allowed considerable social spending. These are the years known as "Saudi Arabia", characterized by public investments and the creation of infrastructure in the country.
But in the 1980s, this holiday is over. Prices, unemployment and public debt have increased.
former President of Venezuela, Carlos Andrés Perez, on a photo of October 31, 1998 – Photo: KW / ME
Until, in 1989, depo logo must be elected for the second time, Perez implemented the economic program known as "pacotão", which included cuts in social services, tax increases and the privatization of state-owned enterprises.
What was the social climate at the time?
Venezuela of 1998 was still living under the trauma of the episode "Caracaço". Shortly after the beginning of the Perez reforms, a popular revolt with demonstrations and looting broke out in Caracas.
According to the historian Blanco Muñoz, the president suspended several constitutional guarantees and, "to protect himself and his government, he put the army in the street with the order to kill" . He calls this moment the "mbadacre of Venezuela".
"We still count the dead," he laments during a conversation with the BBC Mundo Juan Barreto, who accompanied Chávez's candidacy early in his life and was responsible for communication within from his government.
The wave of violence and repression that prevailed at the time left hundreds dead, but the exact number remains to be debated in the country.
Outrage at the government's response to the protests later reinforced support for Chavez.
Gustavo Márquez, twice minister of Chávez, said that in recent years the so-called system of alternation between the two main parties, "the political elite of the country" Was far from the population ".
What is the situation of Venezuela today?
This political and economic context of the late 1990s facilitated the rise of Chavez, a soldier who proposed to break with traditional politics.
But the current situation presents parallels with this moment.
In 2014 and 2017, several waves of protests took place against the government of Nicolas Maduro, the successor of Chavez, who died in 2013. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators also left dozens dead – he there is no consensus on the exact number. .
Barreto said that lately "the Maduro government has restricted freedoms, but it can not be said that it is the same as what happened in Caracaço", where he said , "they forced young people to slaughter the population".
According to the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, 2018 will be the year of the most numerous demonstrations in Venezuela since 2011 when the organization started collecting data. However, it seems that they are becoming less intense.
There are no major opposition marches, as in previous years, but smaller concentrations of retirees, health workers, and other groups protesting against government and its economic management and against lack of access to basic services.
And the Venezuelan economy?
The Venezuelan economy began to deteriorate sharply in 2013, after the death of Chavez.
According to the IMF estimate, the country will have its third consecutive year in 2018 with a drop of more than 10% of GDP, a dramatic reduction in its national wealth. Between 2013 and 2017, Venezuelan GDP decreased by 37%. The IMF expects a further 15% decline this year. and describes the situation as "one of the worst economic crises in history".
Added to this is hyperinflation, a constant and accelerated rise in prices estimated by the IMF at 1,000,000% by the end of this year.
Although inflation was already a problem in 1998, the current rate exceeds all precedents in Venezuela and almost worldwide.
The current crisis has also been caused by falling oil prices. For Chávista Barreto, "Chavez could not break with the model of oil trader".
All badysts agree that the frenzy of Venezuelan officials suspected of using corruption is another important reason that allowed Chavez to succeed in the polls.
Already in the decade of 1970, the scandals multiplied, which badociates Carlos Andrés Pérez and the personalities of his entourage to a supposed misuse of the public resources.
After the "Caracaço" and the two coup attempts by Chávez, Pérez was formally accused of having spent millions of bolivars in a secret presidential fund and sending them to send a mission of police in Nicaragua.
The process ended his dismissal by Congress and the Supreme Court sentenced him to two years and four months of house arrest.
In 1998, Perez was again accused of misusing public funds that he allegedly hid in US bank accounts. Perez left Venezuela and settled in Miami, where he died without complying with Venezuelan court requirements.
Chavismo also did not get rid of the # 39, place of corruption.
A tribe Florida State has recently sentenced Alejandro Andrade, treasurer of the Republic and Chavez 's bodyguard, to 10 years in prison for taking a $ 1 billion setback.
Other people from Chávez's circle are also accused in different parts of the world. Her nurse, Claudia Patricia Díaz Guillén, hopes in Spain that the court will rule on her extradition to Venezuela for accusations of involvement in the Chavista treasurer project.
The list does not stop there. In Andorra, a group of directors of PDVSA, the Venezuelan national oil company, accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars is being investigated.
The Venezuelan public prosecutor's office announced a few weeks ago that it had discovered a scheme of embezzlement of the company and said that it had arrested those responsible.
In addition, two nephews of President Maduro's wife were sentenced in the United States in 2017 for attempting to transport 800 kilograms of cocaine to Haiti.
The situation is aggravated by the political upheaval. In 2015, Chavismo lost control of Parliament and Maduro, who constantly accuses opponents of trying to overthrow him by coups, decided to convene a National Constituent Assembly.
In practice, this was a strategy to completely drain the power of the opponent-controlled legislator and to create an example of a parallel decision. Chavismo also dominates the Supreme Court of Justice, supreme body of the judiciary.
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