[ad_1]
SÃO PAULO – The latest Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) decision of 2018 confirmed a scenario that was already beginning to emerge in the Brazilian market: interest rates should no longer rise to new. And more than showing that the Selic will stay at 6.50% for a few more months, it also changes the trading environment of the dollar.
So much so that the decision contributed to the rise of the US dollar (13), with a rise of 0.72% of the US dollar and a return to R $ 3.88. This is due to the fact that Copom's decision made the scenario less attractive to the foreign investor, who tends to leave our market by withdrawing dollars out of the country, which puts the real downward
And all this has a name: to carry trade. "Fundamentally, what happened is that until then, the foreign investor borrowed at low interest rates in European countries, the United States or Japan and then apply the same capital in countries with higher interest rates, such as Brazil.
The problem is that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the United States. United, which in itself reduces this gain and removes some of the attractiveness of this operation.
E To make matters worse, it is predicted that Brazil should not increase Selic for a considerable time, this is to say that in the next few months, the differential interest will tend to shrink further as US interest rates rise and stay the same here
In recent weeks, badysts had already revised their interest forecasts in 2019, knowing that the scenario of stable inflation and slow growth would indicate a small increase in interest. The central bank, which however maintained its interest at 6.50% last Wednesday, also announced to have seen a reduction in the risk of frustration with the reforms.
Would you like to invest with ZERO brokerage?
And according to economists, this statement alluded to the postponement of the possible upward cycle, which might not start next year. Click here and open your account now! In its decision, the Copom declared that it increased the risk of inertia of the Brazilian economy to keep inflation at low levels and reduce the risk of non-approval of structural reforms. .
According to the note, the international scenario remains difficult for countries. Emerging countries, with the possibility of high interest rates in advanced countries and worsening trade tensions. And in this rise in rates of major economies, the "carry trade" will lose its appeal with Brazil and could cause here a rise in the dollar.
The ECB also insists on the
In this fifth, in particular, another factor also pulled the dollar up in Brazil. In a speech after maintaining its 0% stake, ECB President Mario Draghi warned against the European economy. In addition, eurozone authorities announced the end of the badet purchase program at the end of December
which resulted in the weakening of the euro against the dollar then that Draghi set out his concerns about geopolitical issues, trade protectionism and market volatility.
Even if the decision were to be taken, the end of European quantitative easing could weigh on emerging currencies in the medium term, as it reduces global liquidity by reducing flows to higher risk badets . This is another factor to get the real against the dollar in the coming months.
Do you want to invest with ZERO brokerage on the stock market? Click here and open your account on Clear!
Source link
