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The Brazilian armaments company Taurus, based in São Leopoldo (RS), saw the value of its shares fall just after the approval of the government decree making the possession of arms in the country more flexible. The apparent contradiction has led to speculation on the part of the trade press and economists. The strongest of them is that the oscillation is the result of the very dynamics of market speculation.
Two other explanations appeared: that of frustration regarding the content of the decree – which could be more complete – and that of reaction to the government's statement on the possibility of setting up foreign-brand factories in the country. Paulo Klibad, PhD in economics, believes that none of them is relevant.
Klibad understands that the stock market is "very small", with few investors compared to other countries, which makes it relatively difficult to establish relations between the political world and the variation in values. According to his interpretation, the movement followed the usual logic of functioning of the region.
"This is an essentially speculative nature Last year, there was a bet that Bolsonaro's candidacy would have a positive result, or that the composition of the Congress would be conducive to legislative changes.
During Jair Bolsonaro's (PSL) presidential campaign, Taurus shares rose sharply despite the company's losses in 2018. In the first ten days of January, the company's shares rose more by 90%.
Klibad explains that, even if "who does not know exactly who is behind this movement", the "market professionals" have captured the trend.While some have decided to invest in Taurus in 'hope to obtain greater profits through the decree, speculative investors, able to dictate market trends, waited for the maximum badessment – Tuesday morning (15), day of approval – to sell. # 39; other terms, they bought with low values and sold with high values, "realizing speculative profit."
Speculative logic, recalls Klibad, does not prevent these sellers, who may have contributed to the devaluation , are starting to buy the shares in the expectation of a new high, resell them again.
Despite criticism of the so-called "bullet counter", the economist excludes that the big speculators were frustrated by the content of the decree. Even the proposal of the chief of staff, Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM), to release foreign brands and break the monopoly of Taurus still could not, according to Klibad, influence the oscillation.
"Technically Broken"
Operators of the financial market heard by Brazil de Fato under the guise of anonymity confirm that the preponderant factor of the stock price variation resulted from the a speculative action, based on the "short-term sales", although they emphasize the disappointment with the content of the decree as another variable: "The political expectations regarding the decree have prompted speculators to think that the it was a good time to make money. "
Taurus' financial condition badessments, in addition to the red box in 2018, make the company" technically broken ". "[Apresenta] a loss for several quarters in a row, negative equity, very high short-term debt and long-term debt also," says one of the sources
The Taurus situation was aggravated by judicial proceedings abroad. resulted in a payment agreement in the United States due to the malfunction of the weapons produced by the company.
Publisher: Mauro Ramos
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