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Kevin Yao (Reuters) – China is expected to announce Monday that its economic growth in 2018 was the lowest in the last 28 years, due to declining domestic demand and US tariffs, growing pressure so that Beijing can implement more support measures to avoid a more pronounced slowdown.
More and more signs of weakness in China – which have generated nearly a third of global growth over the last decade – fuel concerns about risks to the global economy
Parliamentarians Chinese have pledged this year to further support the economy to reduce the risk of mbadive job losses, but have ruled out a "flood" of stimulus measures such as that sparked by Beijing in the country. Analysts polled by Reuters are expecting a rise in the inflation rate. global economy of 6.4% for the October-December quarter compared to the same period of the previous year, down from the 6.5% observed in the previous quarter and the lowest since the beginning of 2009 the financial crisis World.
This could bring GDP growth in 2018 to 6.6%, the lowest level since 1990 and the revised level of 6.8% in 2017.
With measures With regard to stimulus measures that should take some time, most badysts believe that the situation in China is expected to worsen before improving, in addition to a further slowdown to 6.3% this year. Some badysts believe that real growth levels are already much lower than official data suggests.
Even though China and the United States agree on a trade deal in the current negotiations, which is a difficult task, badysts say. This would not be enough for the Chinese economy to expand unless Beijing is able to stimulate investment and consumer demand.
Chen Xingdong, chief economist at BNP Paribas in China, said investors should not wait until last round The stimulus package will produce results similar to those of the global crisis of 2008 and 2009 , when Beijing's huge spending package boosted growth.
"What China can really do this year is to avoid deflation, avoid a recession and hard landing on the economy," Chen said.
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