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The labor market reaches the end of 2018 with an apparent paradox: while the number of unemployed is still quite high (12.2 million), the employed population has reached the highest level of the historical series (93, 1 million).
The figures seem inconsistent, but they have a common origin: the signs of an economic recession that must be completely overcome.
The same crisis that had resulted in the closure of nearly 4 million jobs in the past four years and caused the explosion in the unemployment rate had resulted in the arrival on the labor market. a considerable number of people who did not need to work before. It is the family member who goes into informality because the head of the family has lost his job, the student who had to supplement his income to pay for his studies or who had stopped his studies because that he had to work, "says Cosmo Donato, economist at LCA Consultores.
By Donato, we mean people who, through the crisis, have accepted a job without a formal contract or with a lower salary for
Although they occupy lower-quality jobs, they are included in the total.Despite a record occupancy level, the country is coming to the end of 2018 with a still high unemployment rate – certainly one of the great challenges inherited from the future government of Jair Bolsonaro
According to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) published Friday (28), the unemployment rate reached 11.6%, or 12.2 million people. however, the unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points from the same quarter in 2017, while it was 12%.
According to IBGE, the end of the year is, historically, a time of decline in unemployment due to the contraction of the services and industry sectors. According to IBGE, two additional components were useful during this quarter: elections and Black Friday.
In both cases, said Cimar Azeredo, IBE coordinator of the Labor and Income Division, he recruited employees who had been admitted informally.
According to Azeredo, it is this dynamic that makes the market still live a historically difficult time, despite the record of occupation,
. "This is serious because in Brazil the work permit protects the worker in case of dismissal and is often a pbadport for taking credit and consuming goods."
The vacancies that motivated the slight decline in the unemployment rate are essentially self-employed or employees without a formal contract in the private sector.
Portfolios totaled $ 11.7 million in November – historical series. The 23.8 million self-employed are also the largest contingent in the series, starting in 2012.
On the other end, positions under a formal contract have reached the lowest level of the series, with 32.9 million people in this situation. . According to Fernando Montero, chief economist at Tullett Prebon, out of a total of 1.2 million new positions opened in 12 months, informal vacancies were created in May 2014.
Employment under formal contract (private sector, private sector, employers and own on behalf of the CNPJ) accounted for only 33,000 new jobs
"It is difficult to find a job with a portfolio in the country, but the difficulty is slightly reduced" explains Lucas Souza, an badyst at Tendências.
For Souza, the return to formalization will depend on the resumption of economic activity, very conditioned to the approval of reforms. like social security.
Although the political uncertainty that paralyzed the Brazilian economy over the past year has been reduced by the definition of the election, says the economist, there remains some mistrust of the market under the leadership of the new government. a strong correlation between the return of economic activity and positions under formal contract. There is a consensus on the market today that "pulling" on past reforms will not solve the problem, "said Souza.
The evidence that the situation is still delicate is that the number of discouraged people in the country – those who have stopped looking for work – remains high.
In the space of one year, 426,000 people have joined this condition. In November, the country had 4.7 million people slaughtered and another 27 million underemployed (people working fewer hours than they would like).
Donato, LCA, plans a gradual recovery of the labor market. According to his accounts, unemployment will still be at 11% by the end of 2019.
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