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The long-awaited economic recovery and the implementation of structural reforms, particularly social security, should allow credit to resume the role of the Brazilian economy in 2019. Loans must also be the driving force behind In recent years, gains in the sector have been supported by weaker defaults, following the wave of delinquency that triggered provisions for bad debtors, known as DPs, that have reduced the profitability of these institutions.
Financial institutions with the greatest appetite for lending, the market expects credit to have the strength to grow double-digit next year if, in fact, the recovery and reforms take revenge. For forecasts to materialize, the pace of expansion of the balance of borrowing in Brazil has more than doubled in 2019. Over the years accumulated until November – the best month for credit since 2014 – the balance rose 4.4% to R $ 3.2 trillion, according to data released last week by the Central Bank.
The president of Bradesco, Octávio de Lazari, says that the government is implementing the necessary reforms in the first hundred days of its management. "Our expectations are very positive if, in fact, (the country) takes off, and the expectation is yes, by the movements we observe.If all of this materializes, we expect credit growth to reach at least two figures, "he said in an exclusive interview with Estadão / Broadcast .
Companies. Individuals should continue to occupy an important place, but the eyes of the sector are focused on the recovery of corporate credit, which has been heavily affected by the crisis in Brazil. Whether through conventional bank lending or capital market operations, optimism for the portfolio to grow more vigorously, driven by the return of investments.
Itaú BBA President Eduardo Vbadimon, who will pbad the torch to Caio Ibrahim David this year, said the companies had already withdrawn projects from their drawers and that the files "are on the table". Now, he says, they are all considering pension reform.
According to him, if the adjustment of the official retirement does not go away, the scenario presented may change, "but the increased knowledge of society in the matter maintains optimism about the approval of the reform ". On the individual side, besides branches that have collateral and therefore are less risky, such as payroll deductions and real estate, other portfolios should appear, according to the badyst from Eleven Financial Research, Tatiana Brant, are personal loans and credit cards. "The performance of these portfolios can affect the financial margin (positively) in volume, but also in profitability."
Default The advance of riskier lines is not a concern for defaulters, however, as large banks have adjusted their models during the crisis because of the flow of problematic level of companies. The market expects the indicator to remain stable next year in the big banks, with occasional improvement opportunities.
BB Investimentos, forecast for credit growth of 9.4% in 2019, predicts a positive operating environment for banks as private banks increase their portfolios at a faster pace. "Delinquency rates are at historically lower levels, while spreads continue to shrink.This favorable credit environment reinforces the idea that we are at the beginning of the next virtuous cycle for the operational performance of banks," notes Wesley Bernabé, BB Investimentos badyst, in a report.
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