With signs of market relief, the real is the currency that appreciates the most during the year and Bovespa has the 2nd highest level in the world | Economy

By 2019, the Brazilian currency had already accumulated an appreciation of 4.3% against the dollar. After the real, the Russian ruble (3.9%) and the South African rand (3.6%) were the strongest currencies, according to the rating agency Austin Rating.

The dollar closed the week at R $ 3.7144.

Currency ranking

Currency valuation of the dollar since the beginning of the year;

The Brazilian stock market rose 6.57%, which means a performance lower than that of the Merval index of Agentina (11.95%), according to the data provider. financial informations.

Ibovespa, the main indicator of the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, closed the week at 93,658 points.

Trade Performance Across the World

Cumulative Assessment in 2019; Data in%

Source: Economatica

The appreciation of the real and rising stock market are explained by external and internal factors. On the international scene, trade tensions between the US and China have eased and there are signs that interest rates would rise less than expected in the US economy. Higher rates in the United States could attract funds invested in emerging markets.

• Understanding the trade war and its possible consequences

"If we look at what happened last year, interest rates rose in the United States and tensions between the United States and the United States increased. China rose, devalued more, "said Alex Agostini, chief economist at Austin Rating," Now there is a change in this degree of concern. "

In the latest statements, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that US monetary policy would be eased, but interest rates are expected to rise twice more this year, and in 2018 there were four

"We are still waiting for two interest rate hikes, but it is even possible that the Fed will stop in the short term", estimates the economist Tendências Silvio Campos Neto . "The US economy continues to grow at a b the pace of the job market is still buoyant, but the US economic scenario is adjusting, with the risk of a slowdown. "

Change of the dollar in 2019

Difference between tourism and the commercial dollar, taking into account the closing value

Source: ValorPro

Internally, the expectation concerns the economic agenda of the new government, with the postponement of the reform of social security. The reform is considered fundamental for the settlement of public accounts. Without this, Brazil's risk perception could deteriorate, leading to investor flight, devaluation of the currency and a consequent impact on inflation and interest rates.

"The composition of the team has been well received by investors and, despite disagreements within the government, the government reports that the government will send a firm proposal to the Pension Fund," said Campos Neto . Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said the pension reform proposal would be submitted to Congress in February and that the government is considering a capitalization scheme and adoption of a minimum age 62 years for men and 57 years for women. Understanding how the model of social protection capitalizes